We have had three beautiful sunny months here in Seattle and I assume the same for Portland....but most good things have to be tempered with some reality and this is no exception.

Apparently the rains come back this weekend of Oct 11-12-13 and will stay. I have mentioned before but I like the Rufus report to get a good growers report for our area (oregon incl) on a long-range basis and Rufus is known for having an excellent track record at having the chutzpah to actually forecast two weeks in advance.....and then getting it right as well.

http://www.ovs.com/weather_cafe.htm


I am hoping that the three dry months we had will have reduced some of our diseases on our fruit trees ..... that have been hitting us hard lately due to rain.

I have also heard that for those who have container fruit trees and can move them under eaves or something (and away from the rains) right now.....then maybe peach trees would be less likely to be attacked with peach leaf curl, apricot trees actually would have a chance of living.....and apple trees wouldn't get quite so much anthracnose......but I am willing to be corrected on that as my knowledge is limited on fruit tree diseases.....all of this assumes people have been ground watering their trees a little the past few months...and won't let the soil completely dry out this winter.

I've been watching the Rufus reports for a couple years now and have found that his long range forecasts are typically more wrong than right. Can't fault the guy for trying long-range predictions, but I've had better success gauging the weather to come with a combination of:

1) jet stream forecasts - http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/namjetst ... _fcst.html
2) NOAA's climate prediction center - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
3) NOAA's digital point forecast, where you can get a forecast within a few miles of your exact location (in most cases) - http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtabl ... interval=6

I still read Rufus twice a week, but always, ALWAYS bounce those predictions off the three sites above. Then, if I'm still in doubt about what's in store, I throw a pinch of oregano over my left shoulder, turn around 4 times, bite down on a piece of locally crafted skunk jerky and 'lift [my] skinny fists like antennas to heaven' to get the REAL forecast.

Cheers.

Mitch

I use the regular NOAA, but I don't have as sophisticated models as you guys. I guess I don't find them that reliable. I do like the 10 day NOAA prediction. When in doubt, I like Mitch's last method.
John S
PDX OR